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The marquee MTEs and tournaments of November have long passed, the conference challenges and neutral-site nonconference showdowns of the past few weeks are in the rearview mirror — and it’s almost time to turn the page to the rhythm of full-blown conference play.
But not quite yet. The last week of December is always a hodgepodge when it comes to scheduling; some leagues are starting conference play, while other teams still have a bye game (or in the case of a handful of teams below, one last big nonconference tilt) remaining to finish out the 2024 slate.
The big movement this past week came from Kentucky’s loss to Ohio State, which dropped the Wildcats out of the top five. They face a brutal five-game stretch to open SEC play — vs. Florida, at Georgia, at Mississippi State, vs. Texas A&M and vs. Alabama — that will vault them back among the national title contenders or send them further down the rankings.
With the calendar turning to 2025 in a few days, it’s time to look forward. And since we’re in a giving mood, let’s look at one thing each top-25 team needs in the second half of the 2024-25 season.
Previous ranking: 1
Johni Broome to stay healthy. There hasn’t been a more dominant team in college basketball this season — Auburn is putting up historic efficiency numbers through the first two months. But when Broome went down with a shoulder injury a couple of minutes into the Tigers’ game against Georgia State last week, their title hopes flashed before their eyes. Luckily, Broome returned a few days later against Purdue — and finished with 23 points and 11 boards.
Next seven days: vs. Monmouth (Dec. 30)
Previous ranking: 2
Igor Milicic Jr. to find his shooting stroke. Much of the appeal for the 6-foot-10 Croatian big man when he entered the portal centered around his ability to make shots from the perimeter despite his size. And while he has been far more productive than expected around the rim, Milicic returning to form from 3 would be a boost for the Vols. He’s shooting just 25% from behind the arc — including an 0-for-8 effort against Illinois — after making better than 38% last season.
Next seven days: vs. Norfolk State (Dec. 31)
Previous ranking: 3
Their offensive resurgence to continue. Iowa State is a legitimate national championship contender because of its improvements on the offensive end this season. The Cyclones’ typically stifling defense under T.J. Otzelberger is still there (albeit slightly less dominant), but this season they’ve also been one of the best offensive teams in the country. If that trend continues in Big 12 play — and there has been no sign of slowing down — the Cyclones will be near the top of the rankings all season.
Next seven days: at Colorado (Dec. 30)
Previous ranking: 5
No freshman wall. Given the strength — or lack thereof — of the ACC this season, Duke is very likely to be favored in every game the rest of the way. There will be nights the Blue Devils can go through the motions and still come out with a win, simply because of their size defensively and shotmakers on the offensive end — as long as Cooper Flagg, Kon Knueppel and Khaman Maluach continue to perform at a high level. Jon Scheyer has no choice but to rely heavily on his freshmen.
Next seven days: vs. Virginia Tech (Dec. 31)
Previous ranking: 6
Three-pointers to start falling. In each of Nate Oats’ six seasons at the helm in Tuscaloosa, his teams have ranked near the top of the rankings in 3-point attempt rate. This year is no different. The Crimson Tide are 25th nationally in attempt rate, with nearly 49% of their field goals coming from 3. But unlike last season, when they shot 37.3% from 3, they’re making just 31.3% of their perimeter shots — in the bottom 100 nationally. Will that number turn around?
Next seven days: vs. South Dakota State (Dec. 29)
Previous ranking: 7
A marquee win. Florida is one of just four unbeaten teams left in college basketball, but the Gators have yet to notch a signature win to put them into the top tier of teams this season. Of their 12 wins this season, the best one is over North Carolina, and the Gators needed a late surge to win that one. Fortunately, the best league in the history of the sport offers plenty of opportunities.
Next seven days: vs. Stetson (Dec. 29)
Previous ranking: 8
Defensive rebounding. Oregon is one of the surprise teams in college basketball this season, with its lone loss coming at home to UCLA earlier this month. As the Ducks fully enter Big Ten play, it will be imperative to clean up on the defensive glass. It has been an issue, even in wins. Oregon State grabbed 17 offensive boards, Texas A&M had 21, Alabama had 15, even Stephen F. Austin had 19. More physical opponents in league play will add more pressure.
Next seven days: vs. Weber State (Dec. 29)
Previous ranking: 4
Shoot more 3s. This one isn’t a secret, as Mark Pope has mentioned his team needing to attempt more shots from behind the arc — closer to 30-35 per game. Pope’s team last year at BYU attempted more than 50% of its shots from 3; this year’s team is 118th nationally in 3-point attempt rate at 41.8%. The Wildcats attempted just 22 against Ohio State, 21 against Louisville and have hit the 30-shot mark only once in their past seven games.
Next seven days: vs. Brown (Dec. 31)
Previous ranking: 9
Continue forcing turnovers. Marquette is among the best in the nation in steal percentage and defensive turnover percentage, ranking in the top 12 in the country in both categories. Not surprising for a Shaka Smart team. But in the team’s two losses this season, to Iowa State and Dayton, Marquette forced 19 combined turnovers. The Golden Eagles need to force turnovers in order to get easy baskets; since they rarely get to the free throw line, that’s one of their few ways to get easy points against good teams.
Next seven days: at Providence (Dec. 31)
Previous ranking: 10
AJ Storr and Rylan Griffen to make an impact. Kansas had one of the best portal classes in the country last spring, with Storr (Wisconsin) and Griffen (Alabama) at the heart of it. South Dakota State transfer Zeke Mayo has started to make his presence felt, but Bill Self needs Storr and Griffen to do the same. Storr is averaging 7.9 points after putting up 16.8 last season, while Griffen is averaging 6.9 points and shooting 33.3% from 3 after 11.2 and 39.2% last season.
Next seven days: vs. West Virginia (Dec. 31)
Previous ranking: 11
Wade Taylor to return soon. Taylor, one of the elite scorers in college basketball, missed A&M’s win last week over Houston Christian with an undisclosed injury. Buzz Williams didn’t sound too concerned, and Taylor seemed to be in good spirits on the sideline, but an absence of any length would make things tough for A&M’s offense. Taylor has scored in double figures in every game this season and he has also been the most efficient he has been in his college career.
Next seven days: vs. Abilene Christian (Dec. 28)
Previous ranking: 12
Improved 3-point defense. UConn has completely turned its season around since the three losses in three days at the Maui Invitational, but the Huskies are still having trouble defending the 3. In the three Maui losses, opponents shot 52.7% from 3. And even during the six-game winning streak since then, teams are still shooting nearly 39% from 3 — in the 300s nationally over that stretch. Some of it is variance, but the longer it lasts, the more of an issue it becomes.
Next seven days: at DePaul (Jan. 1)
Previous ranking: 13
An inside presence in SEC play. Chris Beard will have to make do with what he has on this roster, and the biggest concern comes on the interior. They haven’t been a great rebounding team against a middling nonconference schedule, and Trey Kaufman-Renn went for 25 points and 13 boards in the Rebels’ one loss. Moreover, Purdue grabbed nearly 41% of its missed shots. Ole Miss is one of the smallest teams in Division I, so a lot will fall on Malik Dia — and even more spot minutes for 7-foot-2 John Bol.
Next seven days: at Memphis (Dec. 28)
Previous ranking: 16
Graham Ike on the court. We’ve documented Gonzaga’s shooting woes in this space before — and they’re on the uptick the past couple of games. But Ike, who has been one of the most productive bigs in the country throughout his college career, has struggled mightily in two of the Zags’ three losses. He had five points in 14 minutes against West Virginia and three points in 12 minutes against UConn. He was terrific against Kentucky but struggled in the final minutes. Mark Few needs him to dominate come March.
Next seven days: at UCLA (Dec. 28)
Previous ranking: 17
Sam Godwin to hold his own. Oklahoma starts only one player taller than 6-foot-7, which helps explain why the Sooners rank in the bottom third nationally in defensive rebounding percentage, 2-point defense and block percentage. Michigan’s Vladislav Goldin went for 26 points and 10 rebounds. Arizona’s Motiejus Krivas had 14 points and six rebounds in 20 minutes. The 6-foot-10 Godwin is Oklahoma’s best asset down low, and he has shown flashes, including 20 points and 14 boards against Oklahoma State.
Next seven days: vs. Prairie View A&M (Dec. 29)
Previous ranking: 22
Better 3-point defense. One of the catalysts for Chris Jans’ top-25 defense the past two seasons has been elite perimeter defense; opponents shot just 31.1% from 3 two years ago and 29.8% last season, the eighth-best mark in the country. This season, teams are shooting 35.6% from the perimeter against the Bulldogs, which ranks in the bottom 100 nationally. In their only loss of the season, to Butler in late November, the Bulldogs went 12-for-22 from behind the arc.
Next seven days: vs. Bethune Cookman (Dec. 30)
Previous ranking: 18
A statement start to Mountain West play. San Diego State, which has won three of the past five MWC regular-season championships and is 7-2 in the past two NCAA tournaments, was picked fourth in the league’s preseason poll. A month into the season, the Aztecs are the lone representative in the top 25 and own wins over Houston and Creighton. But they start league play with Utah State, the league’s second-best team so far this season, and a road trip to preseason favorite Boise State. If San Diego State comes out with a two-game sweep, it’s the Aztecs’ league to lose.
Next seven days: vs. Utah State (Dec. 28)
Previous ranking: 19
Stay the course. Houston entered the campaign ranked in the top five nationally, a Final Four favorite after winning 97 games over the past three seasons. But the Cougars lost three of their first seven games and their best win entering 2025 is a home victory over Butler. Not to fear, though: Houston had late leads in the final minutes of each of its three losses and was still in the process of finding a late-game Jamal Shead replacement the first month of the season. The Cougars are likely to be double-digit favorites in each of their next seven games, so a rise back into the top five shouldn’t be counted out.
Next seven days: at Oklahoma State (Dec. 30)
Previous ranking: 23
Hope the recent 3-point uptick is real. Through the first eight games of the season, Michigan State was one of the worst shooting teams in the country. The Spartans ranked No. 361 in the country in 3-point percentage, making just 22.4% of their perimeter attempts. Over their past four games, though, they’re up to 41st in the country in 3-point percentage, making 41% of their 3-pointers. They’ve made at least eight 3s in three of the four games after not hitting that mark at all in their first eight.
Next seven days: vs. Western Michigan (Dec. 30)
Previous ranking: 14
Improved transition defense. Overall, UCLA’s defense has been elite, ranking in the top five in adjusted defensive efficiency and No. 1 in defensive turnover percentage. But they can be vulnerable in some areas. According to CBB Analytics, they’ve allowed 16.5 fast-break points per game in their two losses — which would rank No. 360 nationally. Synergy has them in the 15th percentile in transition defense. It’s also worth noting that the two teams that beat the Bruins — New Mexico and North Carolina — have some of the best isolation players in the country: Donovan Dent for the Lobos, RJ Davis and Ian Jackson for the Heels.
Next seven days: vs. Gonzaga (Dec. 28)
Previous ranking: Unranked
Backcourt health. For one reason or another, Wes Miller has had his entire backcourt rotation available for zero games so far this season. Dan Skillings Jr. underwent a knee procedure in mid-November; Jizzle James is the only one to play every single game. Day Day Thomas missed the first three games with a foot injury; Connor Hickman missed last game with a foot issue; and CJ Fredrick Jr. has missed several games with an ankle injury. Once Hickman returns, which should be soon, all five should be ready to go.
Next seven days: at Kansas State (Dec. 30)
Previous ranking: 15
Win the free throw battle. As EvanMiya.com pointed out, all three of Dayton’s losses have come when its opponents attempted more than 16 free throws. Going a step further, the three losses were the only games this season where the Flyers shot fewer free throws than their opponents. North Carolina was a whopping 27-for-34 from the stripe, Iowa State was 25-for-29 and Cincinnati went 16-for-21. Some of that is late-game fouling to get the ball back, but it’s a trend to monitor.
Next seven days: vs. La Salle (Dec. 31)
Previous ranking: 21
Figure out the turnover situation. Purdue’s struggles against pressure have been a theme for the Boilermakers since they collapsed late against Fairleigh Dickinson’s pressure in the 2023 NCAA tournament. The arrival of Lance Jones last season gave Purdue a secondary ball handler and eased some of those issues. But while Braden Smith is one of the elite point guards nationally, he needs to shoulder almost all of the ballhandling responsibilities. Just check out the turnover splits. In wins, they turn it over just 10.1 times per game (37th nationally, per CBB Analytics). In losses? 16.8 per game, down at No. 357 nationally.
Next seven days: vs. Toledo (Dec. 29)
Previous ranking: 24
Defend. It’s not even something specific at that end of the floor. They’ve struggled in nearly every facet. Teams are shooting nearly 40% from 3-point range against Baylor. They’re shooting better than 50% from inside the arc. Baylor is No. 303 at KenPom in effective field goal percentage defense. The Bears are in the bottom third nationally in defensive free throw rate. In Baylor’s three losses, Gonzaga, Tennessee and UConn all scored at least 1.25 points per possession. None of that is sustainable in the Big 12.
Next seven days: vs. Arlington Baptist (Dec. 27), vs. Utah (Dec. 31)
Previous ranking: 20
Avoid a repeat of last season. Sounds simple, but nobody thought Memphis would go from top 10 to completely missing the postseason a year ago. The Tigers were 15-2 and won their first four games in AAC play before the wheels fell off and they went 7-8 in their final 15 games. They’re better this season, and wins over UConn, Michigan State and Clemson should have staying power, but Memphis is also a team that got blown out at home by Arkansas State less than three weeks ago. The AAC is weaker than a year ago, but Memphis will still have doubters until it avoids the same missteps as 2023-24.
Next seven days: vs. Ole Miss (Dec. 28)
Dropped out: St. John’s Red Storm (No. 25)
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