Hogs Head Lower on Monday, with Hogs & Pigs Data Showing More Hogs

Lean hog futures closed out the Monday session with contracts down 47 cents to $1.55, led by nearby February. The national average base hog negotiated price was reported at $79.56 on Monday afternoon, up $2.61 from the day prior.  The CME Lean Hog Index was reported at $84.35 on December 19, up 14 cents from the previous day.

After revising the September 1 inventory down 385,000 head, this afternoon’s quarterly Hogs & Pigs report showed the December 1 inventory at 75.845 million head, a 0.51% increase from last year and above estimates. Hogs kept for breeding was up just 5000 head at 6.004 million, in line with the trade, as market hogs were up 0.514% at 68.841 million head, above the +0.1% estimate. The September to November pig crop was up 2.03% at 35.238 million head, as the pigs per litter were up 2.2% at 11.92 ppl. Farrowing intentions for Dec-Feb are up 0.03% at 2.93 million head, with the March-May period up 1.37% at 2.953 million head.

November 30 pork stocks were 391.08 million lbs per NASS Cold Storage data, which was down 8.27% from last month and 5.91% vs. last year. That total was the lowest for any month since August 2010 and the tightest November total since 1997.

USDA’s FOB plant pork cutout value reported back lower on Monday PM, down $2.66 at $96.62 per cwt. All primals were reported lower, with the belly leading the charge, down $9.35. USDA estimated the Monday FI hog slaughter at 490,000 head. That is 3,000 head larger than last Monday and well above the same Monday last year due to Christmas. 

Feb 25 Hogs  closed at $84.375, down $1.550,

Apr 25 Hogs  closed at $89.625, down $0.900

May 25 Hogs  closed at $93.325, down $1.025,

On the date of publication,

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