Soybeans Push Higher as Meal Rallies on Argentine Dryness Concerns

The soybean market took back most of the midweek losses on Thursday and Friday, with the latter session closing up 7 to 13 cents. January was still down 13 ¾ cents on the week. CmdtyView’s national front month Cash Bean price was up 11 1/4 cents at $9.24 ¾. Soymeal futures were up $6.60 to $11.20/ton, as January rallied $8.30 on the week. Soy Oil futures were down 8 to 54 points on the session, with the front month losing 313 points this week. 

Some weather forecasts are calling for limited rainfall in much of Argentina in the more extended 8-14 days, with the next week seeing light showers in the western half of the country. Brazil is expected to receive normal rainfall totals.

The weekly release of the CFTC Commitment of Traders report showed spec funds adding 17,932 contracts to their net long in soybean futures and options as of 12/17. That took their net position to 76,252 contracts. Specs in soybean meal were at a record net short as of Tuesday at 88,971 contracts. 

Thursday morning’s USDA Export Sales report has total marketing year shipments at 25.173 MMT, 22% larger than last year and a 4-year high. That is 51% of USDA’s 1.825 bbu full year estimate, ahead of the 47% average pace. Bean commitments are 38.708 MMT, now 10% above last year and 78% of the USDA projection, 1 percentage point ahead of the normal pace.

Jan 25 Soybeans  closed at $9.74 1/2, up 11 1/2 cents,

Nearby Cash  was $9.24 3/4, up 11 1/4 cents,

Mar 25 Soybeans  closed at $9.79 1/4, up 12 3/4 cents,

Jul 25 Soybeans  closed at $9.98, up 13 cents,

On the date of publication,

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