NFL playoff picture projections: Updated chances to make the postseason, win divisions

We’re almost through Week 16 of the 2024 NFL regular season, and the postseason is just two weeks away. So we’re taking a look at the current playoff picture and the road to Super Bowl LIX. Which teams are in good shape? Which still have some work to do to ultimately get into the 14-team field?

We used ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) to project the rest of the season, looking at the playoff picture for both conferences. We included updated odds for every team to make the postseason, clinch its division and even make the Super Bowl. We also looked at the potential for teams in the playoff picture to finish in specific seeds and the potential for teams out of the playoff picture to finish with the top draft pick. Here’s everything you need right now.

Last update: Dec. 23 at 9:30 a.m. ET

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AFC | NFC | Seeds | No. 1 pick

Projecting the AFC playoff field

The Chiefs, Bills and Texans have all clinched their respective division titles, and the Steelers and Ravens are also officially in the playoffs. The Chargers and Broncos look good to make the postseason, so there might not be a ton to play for in this conference beyond Week 17. But keep an eye on the Bengals. They are up to 15% to make the playoffs and have a path to the postseason.

In Week 17, the Broncos and Chargers can clinch the final two spots:

Six teams have been eliminated in the AFC: the Titans, Raiders, Jets, Patriots, Jaguars and Browns.

The Bengals, Colts and/or Dolphins would join them with Week 17 losses. Indy and Miami would also be eliminated if the Chargers and Broncos both win.

Projecting the NFC playoff field

The Lions, Eagles and Vikings have all clinched spots in the playoffs, and the Packers and Commanders are on the verge of joining them. Green Bay can get in on Monday with a win against the Saints. Washington can do it in Week 17 with a win. Beyond that, there is still a lot up in the air in the NFC.

The NFC South appears to be a 50-50 race between the Buccaneers and Falcons, though Atlanta can lock it up this coming week. It would need a win and a Tampa Bay loss.

The Rams are closing in on the NFC West, too. They need a win and a Seattle loss. (There’s an additional scenario that involves a win and clinching the strength of schedule tiebreaker through other outcomes.)

The Eagles can take the NFC East with a win or a Commanders loss.

Seven teams have been eliminated in the NFC: the Giants, Panthers, Bears, Saints, 49ers, Cardinals and Cowboys.

Seattle goes home with a Week 17 loss and a Rams win, while Tampa Bay is out with a loss and a Falcons win.

Check out our NFL Playoff Machine

Simulate your own scenarios and check out the latest playoff picture: Try the 2024 NFL Playoff Picture.

Seeding projections

Here are the chances that teams in the playoff mix fall into each slot once the field is set. In the top spot, the Chiefs hold the advantage at 91%. They can clinch with a win or a Buffalo loss.

Buffalo and Houston look like good bets to finish in the No. 2 and No. 4 seeds, respectively.

The close division races in the NFC make the Nos. 3 and 4 seeds very much up for grabs. Interestingly, the No. 5 seed is nearly guaranteed to the second-place finisher in the NFC North. And as for the No. 1 seed, the Lions hold the advantage over the Vikings and Eagles. Detroit can clinch it in Week 17 with a win and a Vikings loss.

Race for the 2025 No. 1 draft pick

The Giants (2-13) are eliminated from playoff contention and appear to be in the driver’s seat for the No. 1 pick in April. After releasing Daniel Jones, New York will surely be looking at the quarterback class. But the Patriots and Jaguars are in the mix for the top pick, too. See the full draft order here, which is updated on Tuesdays.

NFL playoff schedule

Jan. 11-13, 2025: Wild-card round
Jan. 18-19: Divisional round
Jan. 26: AFC and NFC championship games
Feb. 9: Super Bowl LIX (in New Orleans)